• Home
  • About
  • Subscribe
  • LATIF
  • Conferences
  • Dashboard
  • Edit My Profile
  • Log In
  • Logout
  • Register
  • Edit this post

Room 151

  • 151 BRIEF

    What's New?

  • WMCA signs £4bn investment agreement with L&G

    May 18, 2022

  • Bill will give UK Infrastructure Bank power to lend directly to councils

    May 18, 2022

  • £400bn pension group collaborates on climate transition initiative

    May 17, 2022

  • CIPFA rejects proposal for vote on publication of fraud hub report

    May 17, 2022

  • John Turnbull elected president of the SLT

    May 12, 2022

  • Pension pool identifies biodiversity as a priority

    May 11, 2022

  • Treasury
  • Technical
  • Funding
  • Resources
  • LGPS
  • Development
  • 151 News
  • Blogs
    • David Green
    • Agent 151
    • Dan Bates
    • Richard Harbord
    • Stephen Sheen
    • James Bevan
    • Steve Bishop
    • Cllr John Clancy
    • David Crum
    • Graham Liddell
    • Ian O’Donnell
    • Jackie Shute
  • Interviews
  • Briefs

Treasurers weekly briefing #2

0
  • by James Bevan
  • in James Bevan
  • — 15 Nov, 2013

jb-banner-grey

The data highlight for the UK will be release of the Public Sector Net Borrowing requirement on Thursday, 21st November at 09:30 GMT.

The trajectory of the public finances appears to have started to improve in the past few months, possibly driven in part by better cyclical dynamics. We will watch for a continued pattern of improvement in this month’s figures. This will be the last set of public finance statistics before the Autumn Statement (Thursday, 5th December). We anticipate that this could bring a considerable downward revision to deficit and debt projections.

For the UK, we’ll also get Rightmove House Prices for November on Monday, Bank of England (BoE) Minutes on Wednesday, and CBI Trends for November on Thursday. The BoE minutes could attract attention and any discussion of softer inflation or the path of unemployment will be in focus.

Elsewhere in developed Europe, several cyclical data points will be released, the most noticeable of which will be the German IFO survey and the PMIs. We expect both leading indicators to increase in November after the small dip recorded in October. For the IFO, we’re looking for 107.6. Meanwhile there are upside risks for the Euroland composite PMI due out on Thursday largely reflecting seasonal issues. We look for the Flash Composite to be reported at about 52.5, consistent with modest ongoing growth.

Turning to the US, thirteen economic reports will be released next week, as government agencies work off the backlog of data from resulted from the shutdown. The highlights include retail sales numbers, out Wednesday, which are expected to reveal a moderate gain, with the prospect of flat auto sales matching off with stronger discretionary retail spending associated with Halloween. We are also due CPI data on Wednesday which should touch a four-year low in year-on-year terms. Existing home sales are projected to fall to about 5.1m.

On Asia Pacific, in Japan, October trade data are due out on Wednesday with another significant deficit expected.  There are no major data releases for China scheduled for next week. Elsewhere in emerging Asia, Thailand’s 3Q GDP numbers are due out on Monday and are expected to be stronger at 3.3% yoy, from 2.8% yoy the previous quarter. Also, Singapore’s final 3Q GDP data re due on Monday and are expected to be revised up on the back of better manufacturing numbers. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s export orders for October are due out on Wednesday and are expected to be well down from the 2.0%yoy rise reported for September. Some are forecasting a year on year fall – and these data are important as bad numbers will encourage price deflation to gain volume, which will end up affecting UK inflation.

As for central bank meetings and communications, in the US, the minutes of the 29th/30th October meeting of the FOMC will be released next Wednesday. In its October 30th policy statement, the FOMC dropped references to elevated mortgage rates and tightening financial conditions, and the minutes may shed some light on this decision and help markets determine the degree to which policymakers were more comfortable with the prevailing interest rate environment in late October.

In Japan, the BoJ meets on Wednesday and Thursday for its regular board meeting, and we expect it to keep its policy directive unchanged. In the emerging markets, we expect central banks in Chile, Turkey and South Africa to keep interest rates unchanged.

James Bevan is chief investment officer of CCLA, specialist fund manager for charities and the public sector. CCLA launched The Public Sector Deposit Fund in 2011 to meet the needs of local authorities and other public sector organisations. You can follow James on twitter @jamesbevan_ccla

Share

You may also like...

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.

  • Register to become a Room151 user

  • Latest tweets

    Room151 4 hours ago

    Back to the future for the PWLB: The Public Works Loan Board is tightening its lending criteria to ensure that loans will be repaid by local government borrowers. But, asks Peter Findlay, shouldn’t they have been doing[...] dlvr.it/SQcmmm pic.twitter.com/bVv4fe0Xlv

    Room151 5 hours ago

    Great piece from Peter Findlay on the PWLB’s tightening of its lending criteria. He raises some pointed questions for the Treasury and explains why the ‘casino council’ characterisation was simplistic and inaccurate. #PWLB #localgov room151.co.uk/treasury/back-…

    Room151 6 hours ago

    The Queen's speech highlighted the need for accelerating UK infrastructure investment into levelling up projects and cutting emissions. @UKInfraBank #QueensSpeech #ClimateAction #emissions Click the link below to read 🔻🔻 room151.co.uk/brief/bill-wil… pic.twitter.com/hFmF2veVIa

    Room151 6 hours ago

    Huge funding heading to the @WestMids_CA from @landg. @andy4wm #LevellingUp #netzero #regeneration Click the link below to read 🔻🔻 room151.co.uk/brief/wmca-sig… pic.twitter.com/ajhZhia6mx

    Room151 10 hours ago

    LGPS governance, Cagney and Lacey style: What regulatory response can be expected following the publication of the Good Governance project’s Phase 3 report and the closure of the Single Code of Practice consultation? Susan Black offers[...] dlvr.it/SQbfXf pic.twitter.com/xwqHOEu2AP

    Room151 1 day ago

    More evidence of the importance of emerging markets in the journey to net-zero. @BordertoCoast @BrunelPP @northernlgps @EAPensionFund @WYPF_LGPS Click the link below to read 🔻🔻 #LGPS #NetZero #NetZeroCarbon #EmergingMarkets room151.co.uk/brief/400bn-pe… pic.twitter.com/qCm0EGxzLn

    Room151 5 days ago

    ‘Urgent consultation’ issued in response to continuing audit delays: CIPFA and the Local Authority Scotland Accounts Advisory Committee (LASAAC) have announced another “urgent consultation” to consider proposals to address the latest issue that has led… dlvr.it/SQJ0kV pic.twitter.com/s6vw0bnGXO

    Room151 6 days ago

    Bags of capacity – now to housing delivery: HRAs have been freed up and councils are starting to invest, but some remain cautious, writes Steve Partridge. He suggests that a minimum of £10bn of additional borrowing could be[...] dlvr.it/SQDvxk pic.twitter.com/yZmoWzHv6U

    Room151 6 days ago

    Bags of capacity – now to housing delivery room151.co.uk/treasury/bags-…

    Room151 1 week ago

    To Michael Gove: a modest proposal: Conrad Hall has written an open letter to the levelling up secretary suggesting an unusual (and tongue-in-cheek) proposal to help councils predict next year’s government grant. Dear Secretary of State,[...] dlvr.it/SQ9GpX pic.twitter.com/mSX1xgeL8a

    Room151 1 week ago

    Queen’s Speech: an ambitious plan hampered by omissions: Richard Harbord examines the impact of the government’s legislative proposals on councils, and concludes that local authorities expect and need more from central government. However you view the… dlvr.it/SQ8hmP pic.twitter.com/BsnziyNPIO

  • Categories

    • 151 News
    • Agent 151
    • Audit
    • Blogs
    • Business rates
    • Chris Buss
    • Cllr John Clancy
    • Council tax
    • Dan Bates
    • David Crum
    • David Green
    • Development
    • Education
    • Forum
    • Funding
    • Governance
    • Graham Liddell
    • Housing
    • Ian O'Donnell
    • Infrastructure
    • Interviews
    • Jackie Shute
    • James Bevan
    • Jobs
    • Levelling up
    • LGPS
    • Mark Finnegan
    • Net Zero
    • Private markets
    • Recent Posts
    • Regulation
    • Resources
    • Responsible investing
    • Richard Harbord
    • Risk management
    • Social care
    • Stephen Fitzgerald
    • Stephen Sheen
    • Steve Bishop
    • Technical
    • Transport
    • Treasury
    • Uncategorized
    • William Bourne
  • Archives

    • 2022
    • 2021
    • 2020
    • 2019
    • 2018
    • 2017
    • 2016
    • 2015
    • 2014
    • 2013
    • 2012
    • 2011
  • Previous story Outsourcing: the devil in the detail
  • Next story Stephen Hughes on finance and the future for local government

© Copyright 2022 Room 151. Typegrid Theme by WPBandit.

0 shares