• Home
  • About
  • Subscribe
  • Conference
  • Events Calendar
  • Webcast151
  • MOTB
  • Log In
  • Register

Room 151

  • Treasury
  • Technical
  • Funding
  • Resources
  • LGPS
  • Development
  • 151 News
  • Blogs
    • David Green
    • Agent 151
    • Dan Bates
    • Richard Harbord
    • Stephen Sheen
    • James Bevan
    • Steve Bishop
    • Cllr John Clancy
    • David Crum
    • Graham Liddell
    • Ian O’Donnell
    • Jackie Shute
  • Interviews

Treasurers weekly briefing #2

0
  • by James Bevan
  • in James Bevan
  • — 15 Nov, 2013

jb-banner-grey

The data highlight for the UK will be release of the Public Sector Net Borrowing requirement on Thursday, 21st November at 09:30 GMT.

The trajectory of the public finances appears to have started to improve in the past few months, possibly driven in part by better cyclical dynamics. We will watch for a continued pattern of improvement in this month’s figures. This will be the last set of public finance statistics before the Autumn Statement (Thursday, 5th December). We anticipate that this could bring a considerable downward revision to deficit and debt projections.

For the UK, we’ll also get Rightmove House Prices for November on Monday, Bank of England (BoE) Minutes on Wednesday, and CBI Trends for November on Thursday. The BoE minutes could attract attention and any discussion of softer inflation or the path of unemployment will be in focus.

Elsewhere in developed Europe, several cyclical data points will be released, the most noticeable of which will be the German IFO survey and the PMIs. We expect both leading indicators to increase in November after the small dip recorded in October. For the IFO, we’re looking for 107.6. Meanwhile there are upside risks for the Euroland composite PMI due out on Thursday largely reflecting seasonal issues. We look for the Flash Composite to be reported at about 52.5, consistent with modest ongoing growth.

Turning to the US, thirteen economic reports will be released next week, as government agencies work off the backlog of data from resulted from the shutdown. The highlights include retail sales numbers, out Wednesday, which are expected to reveal a moderate gain, with the prospect of flat auto sales matching off with stronger discretionary retail spending associated with Halloween. We are also due CPI data on Wednesday which should touch a four-year low in year-on-year terms. Existing home sales are projected to fall to about 5.1m.

On Asia Pacific, in Japan, October trade data are due out on Wednesday with another significant deficit expected.  There are no major data releases for China scheduled for next week. Elsewhere in emerging Asia, Thailand’s 3Q GDP numbers are due out on Monday and are expected to be stronger at 3.3% yoy, from 2.8% yoy the previous quarter. Also, Singapore’s final 3Q GDP data re due on Monday and are expected to be revised up on the back of better manufacturing numbers. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s export orders for October are due out on Wednesday and are expected to be well down from the 2.0%yoy rise reported for September. Some are forecasting a year on year fall – and these data are important as bad numbers will encourage price deflation to gain volume, which will end up affecting UK inflation.

As for central bank meetings and communications, in the US, the minutes of the 29th/30th October meeting of the FOMC will be released next Wednesday. In its October 30th policy statement, the FOMC dropped references to elevated mortgage rates and tightening financial conditions, and the minutes may shed some light on this decision and help markets determine the degree to which policymakers were more comfortable with the prevailing interest rate environment in late October.

In Japan, the BoJ meets on Wednesday and Thursday for its regular board meeting, and we expect it to keep its policy directive unchanged. In the emerging markets, we expect central banks in Chile, Turkey and South Africa to keep interest rates unchanged.

James Bevan is chief investment officer of CCLA, specialist fund manager for charities and the public sector. CCLA launched The Public Sector Deposit Fund in 2011 to meet the needs of local authorities and other public sector organisations. You can follow James on twitter @jamesbevan_ccla

Share

You may also like...

  • What’s going on in equities? What’s going on in equities? 21 Sep, 2012
  • Spain: a stark reminder that caution is still required Spain: a stark reminder that caution is still required 4 Feb, 2013
  • James Bevan: The MPC’s inflation hurdles James Bevan: The MPC’s inflation hurdles 21 Mar, 2016
  • James Bevan: The bond market ‘supernova’ James Bevan: The bond market ‘supernova’ 14 Jun, 2016

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.

  • Register to become a Room151 user

  • Latest tweets

    Room151 17 hours ago

    ‘Chasing yield’ not the best strategy as negative rates loom: Recent speculation that the UK may be heading toward negative interest rates prompts questions for treasury officers managing local authority funds at LATIF. Speculation is rife that the UK… dlvr.it/Rr3Mrj pic.twitter.com/wtxYAB20PO

    Room151 3 days ago

    Will new public procurement rules offer the best commercial results?: The government has issued a green paper on reforming procurement rules. Helen Randall and Rebecca Rees examine the proposals and argue they may not go far enough. The Cabinet… dlvr.it/Rqtw6T pic.twitter.com/9GiVTkL08U

    Room151 1 week ago

    The vaccine may help settle cash flows but inflation remains a risk: Sponsored article: Lauren Sewell examines the prospects for long-term borrowing as Brexit settles and vaccines are deployed against Covid-19. On the 9th October 2019 Whitehall sent… dlvr.it/RqZXCr pic.twitter.com/PzgOZOGQ0k

    Room151 1 week ago

    ESG in liquidity: Sponsored article: Gavin Haywood looks at the integration of ESG in Federated Hermes’ money market funds. Federated Hermes has over 300 public sector clients invested in our AAA rated money[...] dlvr.it/RqZX5f pic.twitter.com/E87sBXsay8

    Room151 1 week ago

    New realities of investing cash and liquidity: “What to do now?”: Sponsored article: Brian Buck looks at the “unique challenge” for cash management strategies. As investors assess the ongoing impact of the pandemic on their business, levels of cash and… dlvr.it/RqVbk9 pic.twitter.com/ZElVASmEUV

    Room151 1 week ago

    Extra finance promised by the government receives a broad welcome: Sponsored article: The financial pressures facing local authorities this year continue to pose challenges for council treasurers. While the launch of the UK’s Covid-19 vaccination… dlvr.it/RqTzTF pic.twitter.com/HCjH0pyHR5

    Room151 1 week ago

    A savvy approach to managing your cash: Sponsored article: Caroline Hedges examines the need for active cash management to achieve a higher than average return. Last year saw the already mountainous pile of negative-yielding debt around the[...] dlvr.it/RqTzMK pic.twitter.com/uP0RQYTJLt

    Room151 1 week ago

    Putting alternatives at the heart of multi-asset portfolios: Sponsored article: Nick Edwardson looks at the assets that provide the “most attractive opportunities”. We believe that asset allocation is the primary driver of investment returns and that the… dlvr.it/RqQ2Qt pic.twitter.com/WLBzvRRRUQ

    Room151 1 week ago

    Thriving in the pandemic: Avoiding the stragglers: Sponsored article: George Crowdy looks at the sectors providing opportunities for sustainable investment. Throughout much of 2020, we talked about why sustainable investing has thrived in the pandemic,… dlvr.it/RqQ2NQ pic.twitter.com/dxiPWKFsPl

    Room151 1 week ago

    The development of CCLA’s mental health benchmark: Sponsored article: Amy Browne examines the importance of investing in mental health in the workplace. We are living through a public health emergency in more ways than one. Physical health[...] dlvr.it/RqQ2Jx pic.twitter.com/o6yRSCX3oF

    Room151 2 weeks ago

    Brexit: What the EU trade deal means for the UK economy: Sponsored article: Hetal Mehta looks at the impact of Brexit on economic prospects. Four and a half years after voting to leave the EU, on Christmas Eve the UK finally[...] dlvr.it/RqLBDt pic.twitter.com/No62srfE8h

    Room151 2 weeks ago

    Cash dethroned: The quest for liquid yield: Sponsored article: Peter Hunt and George Carne ask how treasury departments can balance the need for yield and liquidity. The massive stimulus and waves of liquidity provided by central banks[...] dlvr.it/RqLBDj pic.twitter.com/05g6Zhu1kU

    Room151 2 weeks ago

    Richard Harbord: Delayed “capital determinations” make section 25 opinions a new crunch point: The severe pressure on local government budgets now means section 151 officers confront a tricky call on  whether they can make a judgement on the robustness… dlvr.it/RqLBDV pic.twitter.com/vTAbDKFzkI

    Room151 1 month ago

    PWLB Consultation: Analysis straight from Dickens: Helen Radall and Paul McDermott present a legal examination of the new PWLB borrowing rules as Charles Dickens might have imagined it. Free and easy PWLB (“Marley” to his friends)[...] dlvr.it/RnmwLq pic.twitter.com/yFxcPrQqEG

    Room151 1 month ago

    Room151’s top stories from a momentous year: 2020 was the year in which local government grappled with Covid-19, funding strains, controversy over borrowing rules and the threat of financial collapse. It has been an exhausting and historic[...] dlvr.it/RnlpZg pic.twitter.com/g3myNyox6J

    Room151 1 month ago

    Tracy Bingham: 2020, a year best forgotten but also one of learning: Many will rush to erase 2020 from their memories but, writes Tracy Bingham, there were also many lessons about finance teams, strategic planning and leadership. 2020: A year we’d… dlvr.it/RnlpY2 pic.twitter.com/m7G1krrtCu

    Room151 1 month ago

    Settlement must address ‘precarious’ local government finances: Dan Bates crosses his fingers for “no nasty surprises” in this week’s funding settlement but argues the “bigger prize” is post-Covid financial certainty. Thursday (17 December) should be the… dlvr.it/Rnj9dG pic.twitter.com/KLKjjuBqJE

  • Categories

    • 151 News
    • Agent 151
    • Blogs
    • Chris Buss
    • Cllr John Clancy
    • Dan Bates
    • David Crum
    • David Green
    • Development
    • Forum
    • Funding
    • Graham Liddell
    • Ian O'Donnell
    • Interviews
    • Jackie Shute
    • James Bevan
    • Jobs
    • LGPSi
    • Mark Finnegan
    • Recent Posts
    • Resources
    • Richard Harbord
    • Stephen Fitzgerald
    • Stephen Sheen
    • Steve Bishop
    • Technical
    • Treasury
    • Uncategorized
  • Archives

    • 2021
    • 2020
    • 2019
    • 2018
    • 2017
    • 2016
    • 2015
    • 2014
    • 2013
    • 2012
    • 2011
  • Previous story Outsourcing: the devil in the detail
  • Next story Stephen Hughes on finance and the future for local government

© Copyright 2021 Room 151. Typegrid Theme by WPBandit.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we'll assume that you are happy to receive all cookies from this website.OK