• Home
  • About
  • Subscribe
  • Conference
  • Events Calendar
  • Webcast151
  • MOTB
  • Log In
  • Register

Room 151

  • Treasury
  • Technical
  • Funding
  • Resources
  • LGPS
  • Development
  • 151 News
  • Blogs
    • David Green
    • Agent 151
    • Dan Bates
    • Richard Harbord
    • Stephen Sheen
    • James Bevan
    • Steve Bishop
    • Cllr John Clancy
    • David Crum
    • Graham Liddell
    • Ian O’Donnell
    • Jackie Shute
  • Interviews

Critical stage for Euroland

0
  • by James Bevan
  • in Blogs · James Bevan · Recent Posts
  • — 30 Nov, 2011

The situation in Euroland is moving to a critical stage.

The ECB believes that the answer to the crisis has to be political (i.e. fiscal union with clear rules) and that currently the only ‘enforcement’ mechanism is the threat of a funding crisis.

Governments continue to move much more slowly than either markets or the deterioration in the European economic outlook.

Investors may still be too sanguine on some of the issues facing Europe. Thus, wages need to decline by 8% to 15% in the periphery just to get competiveness to the right current level, but the position would deteriorate again absent fundamental reforms.

This challenge is made worse by private sector leverage of 230% of GDP in Spain and Portugal, which is likely to result in government debt to GDP of around 100% and 145% by 2014.

A cocktail of bank de-leveraging, fiscal tightening, and wage deflation in the periphery is aggravated by deposit flight and a dollar funding crisis. If unchecked, the situation is likely to result in GDP next year that is materially worse than the emerging consensus that there will be a recession.

Of course the problems built up over and extended periods, and the to set the past imbalances right, there is a required loss of around €1trn – and it is far from clear how that loss will be allocated.

On paper, the solutions are either growth and/or mutualisation of debt. It’d seem that the only way to get growth is via a much weaker Euro (€/$1.10), possibly via the ECB expanding further its balance sheet. The mutualisation of debt would work as Euroland total government debt and deficit is below the US, and perhaps the most realistic solution is a move to a partial Eurobond bond (guaranteeing debt up to 60% of GDP), as this would allow the ECB to become more aggressive (possibly by turning the EFSF into a bank or, more realistically, the ECB lending to the IMF which in turn lends to national governments);

Meanwhile, the deterioration in the economic environment is so severe that the ECB will likely be forced to do Quantitative Easing. Catalysts for this could be Euroland PMI new orders falling below 35 (consistent with -3% GDP growth), Euroland M3 growth turning negative (currently +3.1% y/y) or OATs yields rising above 5% (a level that threatens France’s funding sustainability). Ultimately, we think the ECB will blink but not until Q1 and after it has exhausted conventional policy and probably after more of a crisis.

That said, we still believe the chance of the Euro break-up is small (c10%), largely because the direct cost of a break-up is c€600bn to the core, and the indirect cost is likely much higher.

James Bevan is chief investment officer of CCLA, specialist fund manager for charities and the public sector. CCLA launched The Public Sector Deposit Fund in 2011 to meet the needs of local authorities and other public sector organisations. You can follow James on twitter @jamesbevan_ccla

Share

You may also like...

  • Ask the Auditor: Accounting estimates Ask the Auditor: Accounting estimates 9 Jun, 2014
  • David Green: To borrow or not to borrow David Green: To borrow or not to borrow 28 Jul, 2016
  • Room151’s top stories from a momentous year 16 Dec, 2020
  • James Bevan: The ECB’s next choice for QE and rates James Bevan: The ECB’s next choice for QE and rates 16 Feb, 2016

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.

  • Register to become a Room151 user

  • Latest tweets

    Room151 2 days ago

    The vaccine may help settle cash flows but inflation remains a risk: Sponsored article: Lauren Sewell examines the prospects for long-term borrowing as Brexit settles and vaccines are deployed against Covid-19. On the 9th October 2019 Whitehall sent… dlvr.it/RqZXCr pic.twitter.com/PzgOZOGQ0k

    Room151 2 days ago

    ESG in liquidity: Sponsored article: Gavin Haywood looks at the integration of ESG in Federated Hermes’ money market funds. Federated Hermes has over 300 public sector clients invested in our AAA rated money[...] dlvr.it/RqZX5f pic.twitter.com/E87sBXsay8

    Room151 3 days ago

    New realities of investing cash and liquidity: “What to do now?”: Sponsored article: Brian Buck looks at the “unique challenge” for cash management strategies. As investors assess the ongoing impact of the pandemic on their business, levels of cash and… dlvr.it/RqVbk9 pic.twitter.com/ZElVASmEUV

    Room151 3 days ago

    Extra finance promised by the government receives a broad welcome: Sponsored article: The financial pressures facing local authorities this year continue to pose challenges for council treasurers. While the launch of the UK’s Covid-19 vaccination… dlvr.it/RqTzTF pic.twitter.com/HCjH0pyHR5

    Room151 3 days ago

    A savvy approach to managing your cash: Sponsored article: Caroline Hedges examines the need for active cash management to achieve a higher than average return. Last year saw the already mountainous pile of negative-yielding debt around the[...] dlvr.it/RqTzMK pic.twitter.com/uP0RQYTJLt

    Room151 4 days ago

    Putting alternatives at the heart of multi-asset portfolios: Sponsored article: Nick Edwardson looks at the assets that provide the “most attractive opportunities”. We believe that asset allocation is the primary driver of investment returns and that the… dlvr.it/RqQ2Qt pic.twitter.com/WLBzvRRRUQ

    Room151 4 days ago

    Thriving in the pandemic: Avoiding the stragglers: Sponsored article: George Crowdy looks at the sectors providing opportunities for sustainable investment. Throughout much of 2020, we talked about why sustainable investing has thrived in the pandemic,… dlvr.it/RqQ2NQ pic.twitter.com/dxiPWKFsPl

    Room151 4 days ago

    The development of CCLA’s mental health benchmark: Sponsored article: Amy Browne examines the importance of investing in mental health in the workplace. We are living through a public health emergency in more ways than one. Physical health[...] dlvr.it/RqQ2Jx pic.twitter.com/o6yRSCX3oF

    Room151 5 days ago

    Brexit: What the EU trade deal means for the UK economy: Sponsored article: Hetal Mehta looks at the impact of Brexit on economic prospects. Four and a half years after voting to leave the EU, on Christmas Eve the UK finally[...] dlvr.it/RqLBDt pic.twitter.com/No62srfE8h

    Room151 5 days ago

    Cash dethroned: The quest for liquid yield: Sponsored article: Peter Hunt and George Carne ask how treasury departments can balance the need for yield and liquidity. The massive stimulus and waves of liquidity provided by central banks[...] dlvr.it/RqLBDj pic.twitter.com/05g6Zhu1kU

    Room151 5 days ago

    Richard Harbord: Delayed “capital determinations” make section 25 opinions a new crunch point: The severe pressure on local government budgets now means section 151 officers confront a tricky call on  whether they can make a judgement on the robustness… dlvr.it/RqLBDV pic.twitter.com/vTAbDKFzkI

    Room151 1 month ago

    PWLB Consultation: Analysis straight from Dickens: Helen Radall and Paul McDermott present a legal examination of the new PWLB borrowing rules as Charles Dickens might have imagined it. Free and easy PWLB (“Marley” to his friends)[...] dlvr.it/RnmwLq pic.twitter.com/yFxcPrQqEG

    Room151 1 month ago

    Room151’s top stories from a momentous year: 2020 was the year in which local government grappled with Covid-19, funding strains, controversy over borrowing rules and the threat of financial collapse. It has been an exhausting and historic[...] dlvr.it/RnlpZg pic.twitter.com/g3myNyox6J

    Room151 1 month ago

    Tracy Bingham: 2020, a year best forgotten but also one of learning: Many will rush to erase 2020 from their memories but, writes Tracy Bingham, there were also many lessons about finance teams, strategic planning and leadership. 2020: A year we’d… dlvr.it/RnlpY2 pic.twitter.com/m7G1krrtCu

    Room151 1 month ago

    Settlement must address ‘precarious’ local government finances: Dan Bates crosses his fingers for “no nasty surprises” in this week’s funding settlement but argues the “bigger prize” is post-Covid financial certainty. Thursday (17 December) should be the… dlvr.it/Rnj9dG pic.twitter.com/KLKjjuBqJE

    Room151 1 month ago

    PWLB consultation: Big change on the way but there are ‘grey areas’ and opportunities: The consultation on PWLB borrowing has concluded creating a new landscape for funding property acquisition. Our experts look at the implications. Tracie Langley The… dlvr.it/RndRvJ pic.twitter.com/KEqXEBmEfq

    Room151 1 month ago

    2021: Better income outcomes?: Sponsored article: Investors should be mindful of structural challenges posed to income generation as a result of rapid thematic change. Jon Bell looks at the prospects for the coming year.[...] dlvr.it/RndRsw pic.twitter.com/TxVk8aXkMq

  • Categories

    • 151 News
    • Agent 151
    • Blogs
    • Chris Buss
    • Cllr John Clancy
    • Dan Bates
    • David Crum
    • David Green
    • Development
    • Forum
    • Funding
    • Graham Liddell
    • Ian O'Donnell
    • Interviews
    • Jackie Shute
    • James Bevan
    • Jobs
    • LGPSi
    • Mark Finnegan
    • Recent Posts
    • Resources
    • Richard Harbord
    • Stephen Fitzgerald
    • Stephen Sheen
    • Steve Bishop
    • Technical
    • Treasury
    • Uncategorized
  • Archives

    • 2021
    • 2020
    • 2019
    • 2018
    • 2017
    • 2016
    • 2015
    • 2014
    • 2013
    • 2012
    • 2011
  • Previous story Time to start thinking like a corporate treasurer?
  • Next story Innovation key to kickstarting Localism

© Copyright 2021 Room 151. Typegrid Theme by WPBandit.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we'll assume that you are happy to receive all cookies from this website.OK