Councils’ funding at risk due to ‘undercounting’ in census data
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Population estimates in London and Manchester may have been significantly underestimated in the 2021 census potentially threatening government funding for frontline services in these cities.
London Councils, an umbrella body that represents 32 boroughs and the City of London Corporation, said that the capital’s population had been “significantly undercounted” in the census. Similarly, Manchester City Council suggested that its population could have been underestimated by as much as 33,000 people.
The census, undertaken by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), takes place every ten years and is one of the factors used by government in determining funding allocations for councils. The most recent census – in March 2021 – took pace during the third national lockdown caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Impact of pandemic
Cllr Georgia Gould, chair of London Councils, said the underestimation was due to many students, young people on furlough and migrant workers from abroad who had temporarily relocated to family homes outside of the capital at the time of the census.
She said: “Census 2021 took place during the extraordinary circumstances of the Covid-19 pandemic and a national lockdown, so this snapshot data must be treated with extreme caution.”
The census data suggested that London’s total population in March 2021 was almost 300,000 (3%) lower than the ONS’s previous population estimate for 2021, with some boroughs’ figures almost a quarter (24%) lower.
The problem was most apparent in inner London boroughs according to the analysis, with Camden and Westminster joining a campaign to find the “Lost Londoners”.
Gould added: “Accurate census data matters for Londoners because it helps determine government funding allocations to local authorities. Billions of pounds for frontline services are at stake.”
London Councils estimated that around £4bn of government funding to London local authorities relies directly or indirectly on census population figures.
Cllr Bev Craig, leader of Manchester City Council, said that Manchester’s population had also been underestimated – by potentially 33,000 people due to the census missing people in their 20s linked to the city’s large student population.
She said: “We know that Manchester is growing quickly and to receive less budget than our population requires could have a massive bearing on our ability to provide services to our residents.”
Both London Councils and Manchester City Council said they were keen to work with the ONS to ensure that the census accurately reflects their populations.
Accurate census data matters for Londoners because it helps determine government funding allocations to local authorities. Billions of pounds for frontline services are at stake.
High response rate
A spokesperson for the ONS said: We have full confidence in our census estimates. We achieved a fantastic response rate of 97% – and over 88% in every local authority – and undertook the most comprehensive quality assurance ever, including involving local authorities for the first time.
“We would always expect differences with the Mid Year Population estimates from the year prior to the census. The main purpose of the census is to ‘rebase’ our estimates of size of the population.
For some students and in some urban areas, the ONS said there was evidence that the Covid-19 pandemic did result in changes to where people lived. These changes might have been temporary for some and permanent for others.
“We recognise the population continues to change so, using a variety of data sources, we will be providing more frequent, relevant, and timely statistics to allow us to understand population change in local areas this year and beyond,” the spokesperson added.
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[…] The big mistake is not understanding that they are not comparing like for like. The mid year population estimates include an allowance for underenumeration (that is undercounting people that exist), funding and the standard method depend on the mid year population estimates NOT the raw first census results. . Some of the issues were unique to the 2021 census such as holding the census in the midst of a pandemic when many short term contract workers and students were away; but much of this is systemic especially in London where there are larger numbers of inherently difficult to count households such as from ethnic minorities. Newham for example claimed from its own data on GP rolls and school rolls that the 2011 census undercounted its population by as much as 20,000. Many Boroughs are making similar claims now. […]